Davide Cantoni

Professor of Economics and Economic History
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

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Contact:
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Department of Economics
Seminar für Wirtschaftsgeschichte
Ludwigstr. 33/IV, room 448
80539 München (Germany)
cantoni(a)lmu.de

Research


Working Papers

  • Leonardo Bursztyn, Davide Cantoni, Patricia Funk, Noam Yuchtman
    Polls, the Press, and Political Participation: The Effects of Anticipated Election Closeness on Voter Turnout
    Current draft (February 2019): [pdf]
    Abstract: Models of voting, including the canonical rational voter model, predict that voters are more likely to turn out when they anticipate a closer election. Yet, evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout is limited. We exploit naturally occurring variation in the existence, closeness, and dissemination of pre-election polls to identify a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout in Swiss referenda. Closer elections are as- sociated with greater turnout only when polls exist. Examining within-election variation in newspaper reporting on polls across cantons, we find that close polls increase turnout significantly more where newspapers report on them most. This holds examining only "incidental" exposure to coverage by periodicals whose largest audience is elsewhere. The introduction of polls had larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available information differs most from national polls.

  • Davide Cantoni, Felix Hagemeister, Mark Westcott
    Persistence and Activation of Right-Wing Political Ideology
    Current draft (September 2017): [Munich WP]
    Abstract: We investigate the persistence of right-wing ideology in Germany. The "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), founded as a party espousing fiscal conservatism, has turned to an openly nationalist and anti-immigrant platform since 2015. We document this rhetorical change with quantitative text analysis. We further show that municipalities that voted more for the AfD after 2015 also exhibited higher support for the Nazi party in the 1920s and 30s. The historical correlation we observe is positive, significant, and large. In our preferred specification, a one standard deviation increase in historical support for the Nazi party is associated with a 0.15 standard deviations larger change in votes towards the AfD. Our results are robust to controlling for a large set of historical and contemporary covariates, especially relating to unemployment and the recent inflow of refugees from the Middle East.

  • Davide Cantoni, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, Y. Jane Zhang
    The Fundamental Determinants of Anti-Authoritarianism
    Current draft (November 2016): [pdf]

Publications

  • Davide Cantoni, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, Y. Jane Zhang
    Protests as Strategic Games: Experimental Evidence from Hong Kong’s Democracy Movement
    Forthcoming, Quarterly Journal of Economics
    Final draft (October 2018): [pdf]
  • Davide Cantoni, Jeremiah Dittmar, Noam Yuchtman
    Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation
    Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 133, N. 4 (November 2018): pp. 2037–2096
    Original article (open access): [QJE website]
    Latest draft (October 2017): [NBER WP]
  • Davide Cantoni, Yuyu Chen, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, Y. Jane Zhang
    Curriculum and Ideology
    Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 125, N. 2 (April 2017): pp. 338–392
    Original article: [JPE website]
    Latest draft (October 2015): [pdf]
  • Leonardo Bursztyn, Davide Cantoni
    A Tear in the Iron Curtain: The Impact of Western Television on Consumption Behavior
    Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, N. 1 (March 2016): pp. 25–41
    Original article: [REStat website]
    Latest draft (August 2012): [CEPR WP] or [Munich Econ WP]
  • Davide Cantoni
    The Economic Effects of the Protestant Reformation: Testing the Weber Hypothesis in the German Lands
    Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 13, N. 4 (August 2015): pp. 561–598
    Original article: [JEEA website]
    Final draft (May 2014): [pdf]
    Supplementary Appendix: [pdf]
  • Davide Cantoni, Noam Yuchtman
    Medieval Universities, Legal Institutions, and the Commercial Revolution
    Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 129, N. 2 (May 2014): pp. 823–887
    Original article: [QJE website]
    Supplementary Appendix: [pdf]
    Final draft (October 2013): [CESifo WP]
  • Davide Cantoni, Noam Yuchtman
    The Political Economy of Educational Content and Development: Lessons from History
    Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 104 (September 2013): pp. 233–244
    Original article: [JDE website]
    Final draft (April 2013): [CESifo WP] or [BEHL WP]
  • Davide Cantoni
    Adopting a New Religion: The Case of Protestantism in 16th Century Germany
    Economic Journal, Vol. 122, N. 560 (May 2012): pp. 502–531
    Original article: [EJ website]
    Final draft (August 2011): [pdf]
  • Daron Acemoglu, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson
    The Consequences of Radical Reform: The French Revolution
    American Economic Review, Vol. 101, N. 7 (December 2011): pp. 3286–3307
    Original article: [pdf] or [AER website]

Work in Progress

  • The Persistent Power of the Street (with Leonardo Bursztyn, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, Y. Jane Zhang)
  • Territorial Roots of National Identity (with Cathrin Mohr, Matthias Weigand)
  • The Origins of Fiscal Capacity (with Cathrin Mohr, Matthias Weigand)
  • Measuring Redistributional Preferences in East Asia (joint with Vinci Y.C. Chow, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, and Y. Jane Zhang)
  • Beliefs, Attitudes and Preferences of the Chinese Political Elites (joint with Yuyu Chen, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, Y. Jane Zhang, David Zweig)
  • Urbanization in Europe: Regional Variations, 1700–1900

Other research (Book chapters)

  • Davide Cantoni, Felix Hagemeister, Mark Westcott
    Voting for the far right in Germany
    In: Dalia Marin (ed.), Explaining Germany's Exceptional Recovery, CEPR Press (VoxEU.org Books) 2018.
    E-book: [link]
  • Daron Acemoglu, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson
    From Ancien Regime to Capitalism: The Spread of the French Revolution as a Natural Experiment
    In: Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson (eds.), Natural Experiments of History, Harvard University Press 2010.
    Preprint draft: [pdf] Book: [HUP web page]

Policy and other papers